As we move through the first quarter of 2025, the fuel market is caught in a paradox: both stable and fragile, steady and uncertain. While production remains strong, external pressures—ranging from geopolitical tensions to extreme weather events—are shaping the landscape. Below, we explore key trends influencing 2025’s first quarter fuel market in crude oil, gasoline, diesel and natural gas. What can you expect going forward?
Crude Oil: Stable Production & Moderate Prices
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. oil production in 2025, projecting an average of 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd). Despite this increase, overall petroleum and liquid fuel consumption is expected to hold steady at 20.5 million bpd. Global oil prices, led by Brent crude, are predicted to average $74 per barrel in 2025, with a possible decline to $66 in 2026 as production increases gradually outpace demand growth.
Gasoline and Diesel: Demand is Flat, But Consumption Patterns Are Shifting
In 2025, U.S. gasoline consumption is expected to remain unchanged, as fuel efficiency improvements counterbalance increased driving. However, the EIA also anticipates that average U.S. gasoline prices will decrease by more than 10 cents per gallon over the year. Meanwhile, diesel fuel consumption is set to rise by 4% in response to economic growth and industrial activity but may stabilize in 2026. Currently, gas prices are down 12 cents YoY, while diesel prices have dropped by 36 cents YoY.
On a global scale, gasoline demand is projected to peak at 28 million bpd this year due to the growing adoption of electric vehicles and efficiency gains in traditional automobiles, especially in China. Diesel consumption, having peaked in 2024, may be on a gradual decline.
Natural Gas: Tight Supply Meets Rising Demand
As global demand for natural gas continues to climb, supply constraints are keeping markets tight. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) output has been below expectations, limiting supply expansion. At the same time, extreme weather events have made market pressures worse. The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that while gas demand is reaching new highs (driven largely by growing economies in Asia), the pace of growth is expected to slow in 2025 due to these supply-side challenges.
Market Volatility: Geopolitical Tensions and External Shocks
Geopolitical uncertainty is here to stay, and this tension remains a key driver of market fluctuations. The halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine on January 1, 2025, has reignited concerns over European energy security, contributing to volatility in pricing. Additionally, recent U.S. sanctions on Iran briefly lifted the fuel oil market, though the effect is likely to be short-lived amid supply uncertainties and shifting trade dynamics.
Looking Ahead
The first quarter of 2025 presents a complex energy market landscape, with stable production forecasts countered by fragile supply chains, geopolitical instability and evolving consumer trends.
As the year progresses, keep a cautiously optimistic eye on the market, but don’t pass up the chance to save on fuel expenses and other business costs. RTS Carrier Services offers an average savings of 25 cents per gallon at more than 3,500 fuel stations nationwide.
Contact RTS Today to learn more about how you navigate the shifting trends of 2025 and save at the pump.